Capacidade estatal dos municípios frente aos desafios impostos pelas mudanças climáticas

as limitações dos pequenos municípios

Abstract

This study addresses the growing relevance of climate change on Brazil’s public agenda, emphasizing the challenges faced by small municipalities in risk management and disaster response. Based on a historical–institutional approach to the National Policy and System for Civil Protection and Defense, the research employs a qualitative–quantitative analysis of state capacity constraints, diagnosed through the variables of the Municipal Capacity Indicator developed by the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development. This system reinforced integrated action among the federal, state, and municipal levels of government, assigning municipalities the primary responsibility for public policy implementation. However, the institutional fragility of small municipalities undermines the effectiveness of this decentralization process. Although the indicator points to some advances in the state capacity of municipalities with populations of up to 100,000 inhabitants, the overall situation remains alarming. Only 11.1% of the 5,251 small municipalities have a Municipal Risk Reduction Plan, 6.7% have monitoring and early warning systems, and 14.5% have registries or identification of families living in risk areas. The study concludes that, beyond strengthening municipal state capacity, it is essential to redefine responsibilities, ensuring a more active role for state governments in protecting vulnerable communities from the impacts of climate change.