Prevention or Response? An Analysis of Brazilian Federal Expenditures on Disaster Risk Management (2012–2022)

Abstract

Over the past decades, Brazil has strengthened its international commitments to disaster risk reduction, consolidated through the 2012 National Civil Defense and Protection Policy (PNPDEC). This study examines Federal Government expenditures from 2012 to 2022, distinguishing between prevention and response spending, including both the PNPDEC and related sectoral policies. Using data from SIAFI and the Federal Treasury’s financial systems, the analysis covered 75,963 preventive payments and 5,920 response payments, totaling BRL 34.6 billion and BRL 11.2 billion, respectively. Findings show that preventive investments exceed post-disaster expenditures, yet highlight shortcomings in the identification and prioritization of vulnerable groups, exposing weaknesses in policy integration and planning effectiveness. The results suggest that Brazil’s key challenge lies not only in increasing investments but in improving targeting mechanisms and the quality of public spending.